Is it possible that the whole Plame brouhaha is just another part of Rove’s political gaming on behalf of the Republicans? Drew posted something about this yesterday, and it got me thinking. George Lakoff also had something to say about it.
I spent some time yesterday thinking about what Rove’s motives could be for even allowing himself to be embroiled in such a public matter. He had to know what a big mess it would become and how much media attention it would get. In fact, it could prove a huge distraction from other stuff going on. Stuff like the looming battle over the Supreme Court.
I thought the SCOTUS might be it, but I wasn’t sure. Then I came across this article in the Washington Post, and there it was in black and white.
The emerging GOP strategy — devised by Mehlman and other Rove loyalists outside of the White House — is to try to undermine those Democrats calling for Rove’s ouster, play down Rove’s role and wait for President Bush’s forthcoming Supreme Court selection to drown out the controversy, according to several high-level Republicans.
Of course, what the Post wrote is the exact opposite of what I suspected yesterday, but the Rove/Plame affair has pretty effectively drowned out anything about the current (and upcoming) vacancies on the Court.
Here’s what I think may be the Rove/Republican strategy here. First off, so long as the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and the White House, nothing is going to happen to Karl Rove, whether he outed plame or not. The GOP knows it. Tim Russert said as much on the Today show.
Russert: One Republican said to me last night. If this was a Democratic White House, we’d have Congressional hearings in a second.
But it’s not a Democratic White House. It’s a Republican White House, and that means Rove will ultimately get to keep his job no matter how long and loud the Democrats howl for his head.
What it does is buy the Republicans and the Bush White House time to deal with other matters while Democrats and their supporters are watching the Rove/Plame story play out. My theory is that it gives the White House and the ‘Pubs time to get their ducks in a row on the Supreme Court. With O’Connor gone, Rehnquist in the hospital amid rumors of his soon-to-be-announced retirement, and some speculation that Stevens will retire conservatives stand to make a huge impact on the Court — and for some time to come — if they make the right choices. To do that, they need time, and a distraction.
Anyway, that’s just my guess. Could be wrong, could be right.
Terrance: I completely disagree with this logic tree. It speaks more to the cynicism and paranoia which exists out there than it does to the truth. This thing has been simmering for ages. The match to the stick of dynamite was lit when the Supreme Court ruled that the two reporters were not entitled to refuse to turn over their source material to the Special Prosecutor and his grand jury. Rove had no control over the timing. The fact that the Court ruled on it at the end of the session led to the coincidence of firestorm. And, unlike you, I still spend a lot of time talking to conservatives. I work with some, I have friends who are, and my father will always be. Indeed, a plurality of polled Americans refer to themselves as conservative. And polls are showing that 70-80% believe Rove should be fired. I have talked to some of my conservative friends; Rove doesn’t engender much sympathy.
Exactly the opposite is happening. Bush’s blind loyalty to Rove will damage him further, and make it less likely that he will be able to pull off a right-wing coup on the court. Before the news even came out, Bush’s trustworthy poll rating was down to 41%. As this drags along, those numbers will worsen. More people will not believe that Bush knew nothing about this, the longer it goes on.
And Rove will resign, probably, to avoid Bush having to fire him. He can do plenty politically if he does that. Don’t forget, this is the same guy who was fired from Papa Bush’s campaign for inappropriate leaking. The difference here is that he outed a covert CIA operative. Whatever the right-wing thumpers may say, and whatever the ultimate decision is about the criminality of having done so, the vast majority of Americans will never forgive or forget that.
So be of good cheer. With DeLay’s troubles, the dark side’s monolithic adamantine facade is starting to crumble.
I agree with lorin11. There’s a tendency to attribute all kinds of dark powers to Rove, but I’m certain that he had no control over the timing of prosecutor Fitzgerald’s investigation. The Plame affair had a long fuse, and now it’s going off. The Bush administration may well have wished for a distraction from SCOTUS matters, but you can be sure that this wasn’t on their wish list.
Never attribute to conspiracy what can be adequately explained by arrogance.