Nuclear Deal Done?

I know it’s unusual for a blogger, but I haven’t jumped into the discussion about Alito for a couple of reasons. One, I want to see what else there is to find out about him, as stuff is surely bound to surface between now and his confirmation hearing. Already some interesting stories are emerging about his past views on gay rights and the right to privacy. Second, Bush Being Bush, I know what whomever he nominates to the Supreme Court is going to be a conservative, and therefore probably not someone I’m going to be thrilled to see on the court.

However, I’ve blogged and bemoaned the “nuclear option” compromise worked out by 14 moderate Republican and Democratic Senators during the battle over Bush’s judicial nominees. So, I was interested when I saw Steve Soto’s post declaring the agreement dead, and how it might be good for the Democrats.

The White House has gotten what it has wanted, and will now reap what they have sown: the Gang of 14 agreement to prevent the nuclear option is apparently dead. GOP Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio, who is facing a tough reelection challenge next year from both Paul Hackett and Sherrod Brown, needs to fire up the evangelicals to come out from the pews to the polls again to save his butt, and has already come out and said that he’ll vote to abolish the filibuster. Lindsay Graham has also indicated that he would vote to toss out the filibuster should Democrats employ it to stop Alito.

… he possibility is out there for Frist to overreach and employ the nuclear option to get a vote on a nominee who in the subsequent highly-poisoned atmosphere that ensues may not get the votes necessary to get confirmed. And even if he is ultimately confirmed, Democrats will have established the true positions of vulnerable GOP incumbent senators next year on the rights of women. And it goes without saying that even if the American Taliban ultimately succeeds in overturning Roe and returning this issue to the states, it isn’t clear how this helps the GOP long term.

Back when the compromise was struck, I thought it was a bad idea, and that Democrats had bargained away a bit too much. If the deal really is dead, I think it can only help the Democrats, because certain Senators are already talking about abolishing filibusters, which is about the last best hope the minority has of stopping anything.

In comments that took other members of the group by surprise this early in the confirmation process, DeWine said he would vote to abolish judicial filibusters if liberals mounted one against Alito, barring some unexpected revelation about the nominee’s background.

Reaching an accord earlier this year that eased Senate tensions, the group said a filibuster could be justified under “extraordinary circumstances.” But their fragile agreement did not define “extraordinary.”

That’s was my problem with the compromise from the beginning. It’s so ill-defined as to undermine just about any reason for filibustering a nominee, short of having actual film footage of the nominee committing some heinous crime.

If the deal is dead, it can only be good for Democrats, if they’re willing to act decisively and with conviction. If Sen. Reid’s actions yesterday are any indication, there may yet be hope.

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